Laivojen pohjien likaantumisen vaikutus kulkuvastukseen Itämerellä: Chow-Liu-puulla täydennetyn Naiivi Bayes -mallin soveltaminen aluksen kulun analysointiin
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23998/rm.87314Schlagwörter:
COMPLETE, laivaliikenne, pohjan likaantuminen, Itämeri, Naiivi BayesAbstract
COMPLETE-hankkeen tavoitteena on ehkäistä haitallisten vieraslajien leviämistä Itämeren alueella. Leviämistä on tapahtunut merkittävästi laivojen painolastivesien mukana, mutta lajikkeita kulkeutuu merialueilta toisille myös vedenalaisiin runkorakenteisiin tarttuneina. Lisäksi biolikaantuminen kasvattaa aluksen kulkuvastusta ja sitä myötä polttoaineen kulutusta sekä hiilidioksidipäästöjä. Tällä hetkellä likaantumista rajoitetaan puhdistamalla pohjia säännöllisesti kesäkaudella. Puhdistusajankohdat valitaan laivakohtaisesti pääsääntöisesti kokemukseen perustuen. Myös puhdistuksilla usein koetaan olevan havaittavaa vaikutusta aluksen kulkuun veden halki, mutta mittauksiin perustuvia tietoja ei laivaväen käytössä ole. Nykyään laivojen järjestelmistä on mahdollista tallentaa kulkudataa enenevissä määrin. Luotettavien johtopäätösten tekeminen massadatasta vaatii kuitenkin asiaan soveltuvia työkaluja ja systeemin monien sekoittajien ominaisuuksien tuntemista. Tässä artikkelissa perehdytään Chow–Liu-puulla täydennetyn Naiivi Bayes -mallin hyödyntämiseen aluksen kulun analysointiin. Menetelmän etuina ovat laskennallinen tehokkuus ja luotettavuus kulkuvastuksen kausaatioiden tunnistamiseksi, vaikka käytettävissä olevaa dataa olisikin vain rajoitetusti.
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